The Unkind Future of Mr Kind (Gentiloni)

Mr Gentiloni (Mr Kind), the newly sworn in Italian Prime Minister,  is a well respected former journalist and experienced politician. Yet, despite his name, he will likely oversee to a period of turbulent political and economic tensions. I give the TROIKA scenario , defined by high political instability, capital flights, rising bonds spread and possible […]

Lessons For/From the European & Italian Debt Crisis

Foto Lo’ Savorelli 1.How Do Epidemics Spread? 2.What are the Sources of Vulnerabilities in Europe? 3.Interdependence or Contagion ? 4.Italy and Europe: Contagion or Home Made? 5.Italy: Credibility or Fundamentals? 6.European Institutions: What Reform? Those interested in these questions will find here my presentation (in English) at the Conference “Dialogues on the Crisis and Growth“, […]

Il Problema delle Riforme Strutturali è la Deflazione

La strategia di consolidamento fiscale + le riforme strutturali che il governo è Monti vuole attuare, in linea con le raccomandazioni dell’OCSE e dell’UE, potrebbe deragliare a causa della deflazione e recessione. La figura domanda-offerta aggregata (AS-AD) aiuta a fare il punto. I tagli di bilancio (soprattutto gli inasprimenti fiscali e i tagli di spesa) […]

The Problem with Monti Structural Reforms is Deflation

(from Economonitor, RGE, 2 Dec 2011) The program of fiscal consolidation +  structural reforms that the Monti government is envisaging, in line with EU and OECD recommendations could be derailed by deflation +  recession. The Aggregate Supply – Demand framework (AS-AD) in the figure helps making the simple point. Budget cuts (particularly tax hikes and […]

Benvenuti in Euritalia !

Paolo Manasse e Giulio Trigilia (publicato su lavoce.info 17/11/2011) Sin dall’inizio della crisi finanziaria in Europa, molti  economisti hanno paventato lo scenario catastrofico che si sta svolgendo ora nell’Unione europea: un effetto domino, che partendo da Grecia, Irlanda, Portogallo, porta anche Spagna e Italia (i PIIGS, come sono venuti ad essere conosciuti) al collasso. Eppure […]

Berlusconi: Will his fall bring down or save the Euro?

(forthcoming in Foreign Affairs) Since the onslaught of the 2008 financial crisis, many economists had been forewarning the EU nightmare scenario now unfolding: a slow but inescapable domino effect as the economies of Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, and Italy (the PIGS, or PIIGS for the Italy-pessimists) collapsed. Yet most observers got the ordering wrong: the […]