A giudicare dalle crisi finanziarie passate, non è proprio ovvio che i mercati finanziari abbiano toccato il fondo…
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Paolo Manasse
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Economics Department, University of Bologna
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Chi stabilisce quando si verifica il “picco”?
E’ importante vedere anche come andavano le cose prima. Se potessi inserire un esempio…
Ecco un esempio grafico:
http://www.numberwatch.co.uk/2009%20March.htm
Il commento di bstucc è interessante, e mostra che l’orizzonte temporale considerato è cruciale per determinare le caratteristiche (come trend, frequenze etc) di serie temporali. L’esempio grafico che ho riportato ha uno scopo più limitato: mostrare la durata di gravi crisi finanziarie del passato. Rimane però chè il confronto implicitamente assume che le diverse serie temporali dei diversi indici di borsa abbiano caratteristiche dinamiche simili.
ps: il “picco” è semplicemente il punto di massimo raggiunto dall’indice prima della caduta del mercato
Interessante, e preoccupante visto che ho iniziato a ricomprare 🙂 Scherzi a parte, mi chiedo quanto impattino, sulla durata e l'ampiezza dei movimenti, i seguenti elementi:
– tipo di crisi (es: shock materie prime come nella crisi petrolifera, problema di sbilanci fra paesi ora)
– efficienza dei mercati: più circolano le informazioni più c'è reattività
– risposte fiscali e monetarie: per la crisi di oggi è stata usata l'equivalente della bomba atomica, ordigno molto efficace ma dai duraturi effetti collaterali.
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