Whoopee! Welcome to the Italian Roller Coaster! For now, the spectacular U-turn of Berlusconi on the Letta government is pushing back the spectre of political paralysis (=elections with old electoral rules), what I called the Italian Crash Probability (see below what happens when the probability of the Letta survival rises from 0 to 50%). Is Silvio a “lame duck”? Or will his humiliation unleash the hawks in (what remains of )) the PdL? How lasting is Letta’s victory going to be?
Hold tight and enjoy the run (if you can)
