Yesterday decision by the Senate Committee in charge of Berlusconi’s exclusion from Parliament to hold the final vote by secret ballots is making more likely a split in the PdL/Forza between pro/anti government, as a last-minute-under-cover pro-Berlusconi vote is becoming impossible. A split would considerably reduce Letta’s majority in Parliament and raise the likelihood of […]
Berlusconi
Alfano, Letta, Dudù and the Crash Probability Updated
Dudu’, Berlusconi ‘s dog, may be the next FI #2 Two days ago the Naples court decided that Berlusconi will face a new trial for corruption: Italian senator De Gregorio was paid 3 million euro as a reward for voting down former PM Prodi. Today, possibly as a reaction, Berlusconi is launching a restyled “Forza […]
Welcome to the Berlusconi Roller Coaster!
Whoopee! Welcome to the Italian Roller Coaster! For now, the spectacular U-turn of Berlusconi on the Letta government is pushing back the spectre of political paralysis (=elections with old electoral rules), what I called the Italian Crash Probability (see below what happens when the probability of the Letta survival rises from 0 to 50%). Is […]
Sulla Crisi di Governo
Intervista a Luciano Giovannetti di VLoganza TV sulla crisi di governo
BTP-Bund Spread and Crash Probability
The rise in the likelihood of a disorderly dissolution (“crash”) of the Parliament , that I estimate to have risen from 0.52 to 0.65 since Friday last week following PdL ministers and MPs threat of resignations, is already affecting the BTP-Bund spread (today the spread opened around 290bp). If we assume that probability of an […]
The Probability of An Italian Crash
How likely is it that the forcoming decision of the Parliamentary Committe to ban Berlusconi from the Senate will lead to a crisis with a strong rise in Italian yields? In my opinion the probability is today slightly above 50%. Rather than on the survival of the Letta government, however, the likelihood of a rise […]
On WSJ
“Brief but intense” quote by the Wall Street Journal “Money Beat” blog (towards the article’s end) on IMU
Zanonato e la Bandiera Bianca
Il governo ha un problema: trovare 8 miliardi per finanziare l’abolizione dell’IMU sulla prima casa e evitare l’aumento di un punto dell’IVA, misure che richiederebbero 4 miliardi l’una. La prima osservazione è che il problema se lo è posto, per metà, lo stesso governo, a cui il dottore non ha certo ordinato di ridurre l’IMU, […]
Il Difensore dell’IMU
Mah, forse Vega, il giornalista di Lettera43 che ha realizzato l’intervista, c’è andato un po’ forte col titolo, ma insomma, per ridurre la pressione fiscale non partirei certo dall’ IMU !
Renzi contro il BGB
La discesa in campo di Renzi ha sparigliato le carte, allineando gli incentivi di Berlusconi, Grillo e Bersani (BGB). Grillo e Berlusconi hanno molto da perdere, in termini di consenso elettorale, se riuscisse il take-over di Renzi sul PD, ed il centrosinistra si presentasse alle prossime elezioni con la nuova leadership (vedi il post con […]
Politicians, Deficits and Debt
Two nice graphs. One from Angry Bear showing the US deficit/GDP ratio associated with US Presidents since Nixon. The other from Bloomberg last year, before Monti, depicting the Italian public debt in per capita terms, at constant 2011 prices. Comments redundant
Prospettive per Economia e Politica su Vloganza
Intervista a Luciano Giovannetti su Vloganza TV
Berlusconi explained to Romanians
(Interview to Matei Dobrovie, of Adevarul, Romenia. “How Italy lost its economic competitveness” , 9/1/2012 Google translation) PM Monti announced new measures to support the liberalization and competition in key sectors of the economy and industry to enhance economic growth. Italy has lost high-tech competition with the U.S., Japan, China and India and is short […]
Intervista al Piccolo
di Cremona
On CNN World
My post on Monti and life after Berlusconi
The Bocconi University Coup
The story that the (extreme) left- and right-wingers are telling now is that a coup is taking place in Italy. The “obscure powers” of international finance, thanks to the the Democratic Party and to President Napolitano, through heavy speculation against the Italian debt, succeeded in driving out the Berlusconi government, a goverment legitimized by popular […]
Welcome to Euritaly
(by Paolo Manasse and Giulio Trigilia) Since the financial crisis began in 2008, economists have been warning of a nightmare scenario, one that is now unfolding in the European Union: a domino effect, as the economies of Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, and Italy (the PIIGS, as they’ve come to be known) collapse. Yet most observers […]
L’idea del Bene Comune
(questa è la traduzione di un articolo in corso di publicazione su Foreign Affairs) A partire dalla crisi finanziaria del 2008, molti economisti avevano tratteggiato lo scenario da incubo che si sta svolgendo ora in Europa: un effetto domino, lento ma ineluttabile, in cui Grecia, Irlanda, Portogallo, Spagna e Italia (i PIGS o PIIGS per […]
Berlusconi: Will his fall bring down or save the Euro?
(forthcoming in Foreign Affairs) Since the onslaught of the 2008 financial crisis, many economists had been forewarning the EU nightmare scenario now unfolding: a slow but inescapable domino effect as the economies of Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, and Italy (the PIGS, or PIIGS for the Italy-pessimists) collapsed. Yet most observers got the ordering wrong: the […]
Italian Spreads: Quick answers to tough questions
(this column was written for the Metro italian daily edition) In another day of drama in the financial markets the spread between 10years BTPs and German Bunds rose to the record (since the Euro) high, 575 points, with the 2years yields on BOTs reaching 7.5 % percent, higher than the 10 year Treasury bills, 7.48%. Let’s […]