The large victory of the Syriza party in Greece, with Tsipras just one seat below absolute majority (see Table 1 below) raises the questions :”What will happen now in the Eurozone? Is a Grexit scenario possible?”My take here is that not much is likely to happen, except some tough bargain between the new government and […]
contagion
Contagion in Europe
Today I am presenting in Bologna my paper on Contagion in Europe: Evidence from the Sovereign Debt CDS Market, coauthored with Luca Zavalloni of Warwick University. The paper forms the basis of many of the things I have been writing on this issue (in lavoce, voxeu, linkiesta and on this blog). A summary of the […]
Lost in Translation (from Polish)
Non riesco a capire il senso di questo articolo che cita il mio lavoro con Luca Zavalloni! _________________________________ Autore: Rafal WosArticoli: Gazzetta Giornale legale(da http://forsal.pl/artykuly/649609,wos_niemcy_i_recesja_byc_moze.html ) Questa storia non poteva durare per sempre. Germania, che ha grandi economie occidentali di fronte alla crisi, sono sulla soglia della recessione. Questo è un motivo di tristezza o […]
Moody’s Moods (on Italy)
In a recent report on the Euro Area Periphery, the rating agency Moody’s makes the point that the implementation of structural reforms by the euro area’s periphery countries have achieved improvements, although have not yet fully resolved the external imbalances that developed in these countries prior to the crisis. The report also says that the […]
L’Europe et La Crise de L’Euro
Here is my (5 min) talk (in English) at the “Cercle des Economistes” meeting in Aix en Provence, 6-8 july, on the European Crises, see Chapitre 8. Nouriel who is sitting beside me is talking next (Chapitre 9)
Contagion in Europe: Evidence from the Sovereign Debt Crisis
My column on voxeu with Luca Zavalloni is here
Contagion? What Contagion?
The Greek bankruptcy (happened already with the debt restructuring), the ungovernability of the country sanctioned by the polls, and the prospect of exit from the Euro, evoke the specter of “contagion”. The fear shaking markets, governments as well as depositors, is that the precipitation of the Greek crisis will cause a crack on a continental […]
On The New Republic
Kash Masoori discusses the fundamentals vs contagion explanations for the Italian crisis. He rather oversimplifies my argument put in my vox column . Still his column is worth reading
Italy: Time Is (Not) On Our Side
(Paolo Manasse and Giulio Trigilia, voxeu.org, 19//2011) Imagine that you lent some money to an hypothetical country, let’s call it I + – + y (with no loss of generality), whose vulnerabilities have long been known: stagnant total factor productivity, high debt, an inclination for fiscal deficits, a level of tax compliance in line with […]
Will the Irish Crisis Spread to Italy?
My article on roubini.com or voxeu.org